What prospects for Zimbabwe crisis talks?
Posted 3rd July 2008 at 05:17 PM by NewsTracker
July 2 (Reuters) - Below are answers to some questions on what is likely to happen after Zimbabwe's opposition spurned a call by African leaders to begin negotiating a unity government with President Robert Mugabe.
Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said on Wednesday conditions were not currently right for talks, citing the violence that prompted him to boycott the June 27 presidential run-off election, which was won by Mugabe.
WILL THERE BE TALKS?
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change have said they are open to negotiations to end the political crisis, but each has set conditions that are seen as unacceptable to the other side.
Tsvangirai has demanded that the results of the March 29 elections, which he and his MDC won, form the basis of any talks with the government and that the African Union name a permanent envoy to help mediate the process.
Mugabe's officials have said they are willing to talk to all political parties in Zimbabwe, but are likely to insist that Mugabe election victory be respected.
Despite all that, there is very strong pressure from African countries for talks and there appear few options other than eventually bringing the two sides together.
WHAT WOULD COME FROM NEGOTIATIONS?
The question of who leads a unity government would be at the heart of any talks. Both sides sharply disagree on this point.
ZANU-PF will argue Mugabe is the country's legitimate leader as elected president, while the MDC will maintain that Tsvangirai is entitled to lead the nation based on his victory in the March 29 poll.
There are indications Tsvangirai might accept the prime minister's position as long as it came with strong executive powers, allowing Mugabe to remain as a nominal head of state. Mugabe is not seen agreeing to such an erosion of his power.
There is also the important question of what a unity government would do and whether its job would be to hold fresh elections within a specified time frame.
The longer any negotiations drag on, the more they might favour Mugabe since he is already in power and the attention of other countries could easily drift to other issues as the elections recede into the past.
WHAT OPTIONS DO AFRICAN LEADERS HAVE?
Some African leaders want to punish Zimbabwe by banning Mugabe and his officials from meetings of the African Union and Southern African Development Community, but most favour a diplomatic approach to pave the way for talks.
African countries have rejected the toughened sanctions sought by the United States, former colonial power Britain and other Western states and have played down prospects for sending peacekeepers to Zimbabwe, an idea some had floated.
South African President Thabo Mbeki is the SADC mediator on Zimbabwe, but he has faced criticism for quiet diplomacy that has achieved little. The MDC also has grown increasingly hostile to Mbeki, questioning whether he is impartial.
WHAT DO WESTERN COUNTRIES WANT?
The United States and European Union already have visa bans and financial restrictions on members of Mugabe's inner circle as well as sanctions on arms exports. They are already discussing how to broaden their sanctions.
The United States has said it would push for action by the U.N. Security Council. A draft text of a U.N. resolution proposed by the United States calls for a U.N. visa ban and asset freeze on those closest to Mugabe. It has limited chances of being passed however.
A global arms embargo on Zimbabwe is also an option, although it is unclear that it would be supported by key countries, including South Africa, Russia and China.
The European Union has said that only a government led by Tsvangirai can be seen as legitimate.
Western countries are wary of actions that could deepen the suffering of Zimbabweans, caught in the economic collapse of the once prosperous state. They also realise sanctions have done little but embolden Zimbabwe's elite to hold power.
WHAT IF THE CRISIS DRAGS ON?
The prospects of reversing Zimbabwe's economic meltdown are slim without a change in government. Mugabe refuses to consider reforms and Western powers are unlikely to provide the billions of dollars in development aid needed to bail out the economy.
Zimbabwe's neighbours could be swamped with an even bigger influx of refugees than the 3 million who already left. Investors keen to invest in Zimbabwe will keep plans on hold.
(Reporting by Harare and Johannesburg bureaux; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)
Zimbabwean opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai said on Wednesday conditions were not currently right for talks, citing the violence that prompted him to boycott the June 27 presidential run-off election, which was won by Mugabe.
WILL THERE BE TALKS?
Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change have said they are open to negotiations to end the political crisis, but each has set conditions that are seen as unacceptable to the other side.
Tsvangirai has demanded that the results of the March 29 elections, which he and his MDC won, form the basis of any talks with the government and that the African Union name a permanent envoy to help mediate the process.
Mugabe's officials have said they are willing to talk to all political parties in Zimbabwe, but are likely to insist that Mugabe election victory be respected.
Despite all that, there is very strong pressure from African countries for talks and there appear few options other than eventually bringing the two sides together.
WHAT WOULD COME FROM NEGOTIATIONS?
The question of who leads a unity government would be at the heart of any talks. Both sides sharply disagree on this point.
ZANU-PF will argue Mugabe is the country's legitimate leader as elected president, while the MDC will maintain that Tsvangirai is entitled to lead the nation based on his victory in the March 29 poll.
There are indications Tsvangirai might accept the prime minister's position as long as it came with strong executive powers, allowing Mugabe to remain as a nominal head of state. Mugabe is not seen agreeing to such an erosion of his power.
There is also the important question of what a unity government would do and whether its job would be to hold fresh elections within a specified time frame.
The longer any negotiations drag on, the more they might favour Mugabe since he is already in power and the attention of other countries could easily drift to other issues as the elections recede into the past.
WHAT OPTIONS DO AFRICAN LEADERS HAVE?
Some African leaders want to punish Zimbabwe by banning Mugabe and his officials from meetings of the African Union and Southern African Development Community, but most favour a diplomatic approach to pave the way for talks.
African countries have rejected the toughened sanctions sought by the United States, former colonial power Britain and other Western states and have played down prospects for sending peacekeepers to Zimbabwe, an idea some had floated.
South African President Thabo Mbeki is the SADC mediator on Zimbabwe, but he has faced criticism for quiet diplomacy that has achieved little. The MDC also has grown increasingly hostile to Mbeki, questioning whether he is impartial.
WHAT DO WESTERN COUNTRIES WANT?
The United States and European Union already have visa bans and financial restrictions on members of Mugabe's inner circle as well as sanctions on arms exports. They are already discussing how to broaden their sanctions.
The United States has said it would push for action by the U.N. Security Council. A draft text of a U.N. resolution proposed by the United States calls for a U.N. visa ban and asset freeze on those closest to Mugabe. It has limited chances of being passed however.
A global arms embargo on Zimbabwe is also an option, although it is unclear that it would be supported by key countries, including South Africa, Russia and China.
The European Union has said that only a government led by Tsvangirai can be seen as legitimate.
Western countries are wary of actions that could deepen the suffering of Zimbabweans, caught in the economic collapse of the once prosperous state. They also realise sanctions have done little but embolden Zimbabwe's elite to hold power.
WHAT IF THE CRISIS DRAGS ON?
The prospects of reversing Zimbabwe's economic meltdown are slim without a change in government. Mugabe refuses to consider reforms and Western powers are unlikely to provide the billions of dollars in development aid needed to bail out the economy.
Zimbabwe's neighbours could be swamped with an even bigger influx of refugees than the 3 million who already left. Investors keen to invest in Zimbabwe will keep plans on hold.
(Reporting by Harare and Johannesburg bureaux; Editing by Matthew Tostevin)
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